The World Beyond 3G
David Borth: Forecasting the Future of IT
By Doug Peterson
The expectations have been big, but so have been the problems bedeviling third-generation cellular technology, better known as 3G.
Three-G cellular phones, released in Japan in 2001, receive data at much faster speeds than older technology, making it possible to download video and music, access the Internet and play games - all from the cell phone. It sounds great, but the reality has been tough on carriers, as they pour billions of dollars into simply obtaining the 3G licensing rights.
Telcordia's Robert Lucky, speaking at CSL's 50th-anniversary symposium in the fall of 2001, put it bluntly: "3G, forget it…The money that was paid just for the license for 3G in the United Kingdom would have been enough to put a fiber into every home in the country…It's a world gone haywire. And it's one of the reasons that telecom is cratering right now."
To David Borth, a CSL alumnus and director of communications research at Motorola, the prognosis for 3G is not quite as bad. Borth also spoke at CSL's 50th anniversary symposium, and he said that 3G is "not quite dead."
In January of 2000, 3G took off with significant interest, particularly in Europe and Asia, Borth said. But then came the spectrum auction issues, in which carriers paid billions of dollars for a license to deploy 3G in particular regions of a country.
As he explained, interest dropped off as carriers realized they were paying way too much for spectrum. "Some of the carriers started saying that this is nuts, we're not even going to implement 3G," he said.
For example, at the beginning of 2001, one of the carriers in France said they were going to bow out of the process.
So what happens from here?
Borth envisions three possible scenarios unfolding over the next two to 20 years - Beyond 3G, 3.5G and 4G.
Beyond 3G. The idea with Beyond 3G is to combine 2.5G with certain existing broadcast technologies, such as wireless local area networks. According to Borth, large carriers and manufacturers are behind this approach in Europe. "They've formed the Wireless World Research Forum recently and are taking off on this concept," he said.
3.5G. The 3.5G option assumes that you have 3G technology at least beginning to roll out. 3.5G would aim to improve spectral efficiency and bandwidth, possibly boosting capacity by 6 times and maximum data rates by 10 times over 3G. This scenario will play out in the United States and perhaps in Japan, Borth said.
4G. The third scenario lies even further out in the future for both the United States and Japan - possibly as far out as 2010, Borth said. In Japan, 3G is up and running and the Japanese think it is a success. So they are already looking forward to what's next - 4G.
"The companies in Japan are marching toward this now, although at a reduced rate given the telecom carrier business today," Borth said.
David Borth
Corporate vice president and director of communications research, Motorola, Inc.
U of I graduate in 1979
Panel: Forecasting the Future of IT
Delivered: October 26, 2001